Multi-asset investment company Saxo Bank today announces the launch of its next equity theme basket focusing on the payments industry with 25 companies of high quality.
The payments theme basket consists of 25 companies with a good mix of old and new companies, and a good geographical split although the US is overrepresented, but that should not surprise anyone since the world is based on a US centric financial system with the USD still being the world’s reserve currency.
Out of the 25 companies in the basket, 11 companies have listed publicly within the past five years. The reason why AfterPay is not in the list is that Saxo expects the acquisition from Square to be approved by all regulators.
Saxo’s payments theme basket is up 2.2% year-to-date as of yesterday’s close prices putting it the bottom half of Saxo’s themes in terms of performance. However, the basket is still up 39% over the past year and 347% over the past five years.
The key risks for investors in the payments industry are foremost high valuations which require the newer payment companies such as Square and Adyen to constantly perform and deliver high growth rates. Increased regulation of the payment industry is also likely given the accounting scandal and fraud at Wirecard and the Greensill collapse which has shocked the supply chain finance industry.
Fraud committed by consumers and merchants is also a key risk for payment companies, and cyber attacks on payment networks are probably the ultimate tail-risk for these companies. It has the potential to completely devastate a payment company. Expansion to emerging markets also come with higher credit and fraud risk.
Finally, digital currencies issued by central banks or privately issued cryptocurrencies have the potential to disrupt the entire payment industry once again.
Saxo has been regularly expanding its lineup of equity theme baskets. In July, Saxo introduced a basket on 3D printing companies. This is the smallest basket Saxo has done so far with only 16 companies making the cut.
In June, Saxo introduced its 16th equity basket – it focuses on the cyber security industry. Prior to that, Saxo launched an equity theme basket which provides a diversified exposure to the global logistics industry.